PITTSBURGH — Economists at Pittsburgh’s largest bank expect the economy will continue to do well in 2025 with further expansion and a low unemployment rate. But PNC’s outlook also cautions that growth will be weaker than in 2024 and potential policies may impact inflation.
There are plenty of positives.
PNC economists expect unemployment to be at 4.2% by the end of 2025, same as it was in November 2024. That’s up slightly from its lowest point of 3.4% in 2023 but is still historically low.
Job growth through the first 11 months of 2024 has averaged 180,000 per month, down from 232,000 last year. That is still almost double the pace during the decade of the 2010s. Average wages in the economy have been increasing more rapidly than prices for more than two years.
The job market should remain strong throughout 2025, the outlook said. Businesses still report difficulties in hiring workers, layoffs are historically low, and initial claims for unemployment insurance are down from mid-2024.
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